Palladium price prediction in Hong Kong
Where palladium could sit at six horizons, from one week to ten years — modelled from 27.9 years of its own price history (Oct 1998 onward). Over that period it returned 5.79% a year with 53.6% annualised volatility.
Scenario table · 24K per tael in Hong Kong
Today: HK$12,830 per tael
| Horizon | Severe bearish | Bearish | Base case | Bullish | Strong bullish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next week Oct 2026 |
HK$11,072 -13.7% |
HK$11,925 -7.1% |
HK$12,844 +0.1% |
HK$13,833 +7.8% |
HK$14,898 +16.1% |
| Next month Nov 2026 |
HK$9,460 -26.3% |
HK$11,042 -13.9% |
HK$12,890 +0.5% |
HK$15,047 +17.3% |
HK$17,564 +36.9% |
| Next 6 months Apr 2027 |
HK$6,184 -51.8% |
HK$9,034 -29.6% |
HK$13,196 +2.9% |
HK$19,276 +50.2% |
HK$28,157 +119.5% |
| Next year Oct 2027 |
HK$4,647 -63.8% |
HK$7,942 -38.1% |
HK$13,573 +5.8% |
HK$23,196 +80.8% |
HK$39,642 +209.0% |
| Next 5 years Oct 2031 |
HK$1,547 -87.9% |
HK$5,129 -60.0% |
HK$17,001 +32.5% |
HK$56,352 +339.2% |
HK$186,782 +1,355.9% |
| Next 10 years Oct 2036 |
HK$759.87 -94.1% |
HK$4,138 -67.8% |
HK$22,529 +75.6% |
HK$122,669 +856.1% |
HK$667,936 +5,106.2% |
Palladium price next week — October 2026
A sustained palladium sell-off — the kind driven by aggressive real-rate rises, a strongly bidding dollar and outflows from metal-backed funds. Roughly a 1-in-40 downside path over next week.
Tighter policy and a firmer dollar make non-yielding metal less attractive. About a 1-in-6 chance the price sits at or below this level after next week.
The median path: palladium simply continues at its long-run average rate of 5.8% a year, with no shock in either direction. Half of historical outcomes land above this, half below.
Falling real rates, persistent inflation or continued central-bank accumulation. About a 1-in-6 chance the price sits at or above this level after next week.
A crisis bid — currency stress, a sharp risk-off move or an inflation shock sending capital into hard assets. Roughly a 1-in-40 upside path over next week.
Palladium price next month — November 2026
A sustained palladium sell-off — the kind driven by aggressive real-rate rises, a strongly bidding dollar and outflows from metal-backed funds. Roughly a 1-in-40 downside path over next month.
Tighter policy and a firmer dollar make non-yielding metal less attractive. About a 1-in-6 chance the price sits at or below this level after next month.
The median path: palladium simply continues at its long-run average rate of 5.8% a year, with no shock in either direction. Half of historical outcomes land above this, half below.
Falling real rates, persistent inflation or continued central-bank accumulation. About a 1-in-6 chance the price sits at or above this level after next month.
A crisis bid — currency stress, a sharp risk-off move or an inflation shock sending capital into hard assets. Roughly a 1-in-40 upside path over next month.
Palladium price next 6 months — April 2027
A sustained palladium sell-off — the kind driven by aggressive real-rate rises, a strongly bidding dollar and outflows from metal-backed funds. Roughly a 1-in-40 downside path over next 6 months.
Tighter policy and a firmer dollar make non-yielding metal less attractive. About a 1-in-6 chance the price sits at or below this level after next 6 months.
The median path: palladium simply continues at its long-run average rate of 5.8% a year, with no shock in either direction. Half of historical outcomes land above this, half below.
Falling real rates, persistent inflation or continued central-bank accumulation. About a 1-in-6 chance the price sits at or above this level after next 6 months.
A crisis bid — currency stress, a sharp risk-off move or an inflation shock sending capital into hard assets. Roughly a 1-in-40 upside path over next 6 months.
Palladium price next year — October 2027
A sustained palladium sell-off — the kind driven by aggressive real-rate rises, a strongly bidding dollar and outflows from metal-backed funds. Roughly a 1-in-40 downside path over next year.
Tighter policy and a firmer dollar make non-yielding metal less attractive. About a 1-in-6 chance the price sits at or below this level after next year.
The median path: palladium simply continues at its long-run average rate of 5.8% a year, with no shock in either direction. Half of historical outcomes land above this, half below.
Falling real rates, persistent inflation or continued central-bank accumulation. About a 1-in-6 chance the price sits at or above this level after next year.
A crisis bid — currency stress, a sharp risk-off move or an inflation shock sending capital into hard assets. Roughly a 1-in-40 upside path over next year.
Palladium price next 5 years — October 2031
A sustained palladium sell-off — the kind driven by aggressive real-rate rises, a strongly bidding dollar and outflows from metal-backed funds. Roughly a 1-in-40 downside path over next 5 years.
Tighter policy and a firmer dollar make non-yielding metal less attractive. About a 1-in-6 chance the price sits at or below this level after next 5 years.
The median path: palladium simply continues at its long-run average rate of 5.8% a year, with no shock in either direction. Half of historical outcomes land above this, half below.
Falling real rates, persistent inflation or continued central-bank accumulation. About a 1-in-6 chance the price sits at or above this level after next 5 years.
A crisis bid — currency stress, a sharp risk-off move or an inflation shock sending capital into hard assets. Roughly a 1-in-40 upside path over next 5 years.
Palladium price next 10 years — October 2036
A sustained palladium sell-off — the kind driven by aggressive real-rate rises, a strongly bidding dollar and outflows from metal-backed funds. Roughly a 1-in-40 downside path over next 10 years.
Tighter policy and a firmer dollar make non-yielding metal less attractive. About a 1-in-6 chance the price sits at or below this level after next 10 years.
The median path: palladium simply continues at its long-run average rate of 5.8% a year, with no shock in either direction. Half of historical outcomes land above this, half below.
Falling real rates, persistent inflation or continued central-bank accumulation. About a 1-in-6 chance the price sits at or above this level after next 10 years.
A crisis bid — currency stress, a sharp risk-off move or an inflation shock sending capital into hard assets. Roughly a 1-in-40 upside path over next 10 years.
How these numbers are produced
Every figure comes from one formula applied to 777 real closing prices between 1998-10-01 and 2026-08-25:
price(t) = spot × exp( μ·t + z·σ·√t )
μ is the measured annualised drift (5.79% a year), σ the measured annualised volatility (53.6%), t the horizon in years and z how many standard deviations a scenario sits from the median. The history is not evenly spaced — monthly in the early years, daily recently — so each return is weighted by the real time gap between its two observations rather than being treated as an equal period.
What this model cannot do. It assumes the future distribution of returns resembles the past one. It has no view on interest rates, central-bank buying, mine supply or war. A single policy decision can move the price further in a day than the model puts at a 1-in-40 chance over a year. Treat the wide bands as an honest admission of uncertainty, not as a target.